This new buy signal will be set off if the new lows exceed the new high for two consecutive days.Ĭommon indicators surrounding the VIX VIX, + 0.05% and its derivatives remain bullish in their outlook for the stock - at least for now. The NYSE’s new 52-week highs have been above 100 on each of the past four trading days, while new lows have been in the single digits. New Lows” indicator has given a buy signal. It just depends on when the next cell signal comes.įor the first time in nearly nine months, the “New Highs vs. Therefore, there is clearly no predictive value to the fact that the oscillator is overbought. The market reaction after those two previous attacks by the oscillator at dizzying highs was quite different: SPX continued to be very high after June 2020, but diverged after August 2022. This general zone of “extremely overbought-ness” has been reached twice before: once in June 2020 on the big rally following the pandemic sell-off of March 2020, and again in August 2022. These buy signals are still in place after the massive selloff on 18th January.Īdditionally, it should be noted that the “only stock” breadth oscillator was overbought so close to its all-time high. This was one of the bullish indicators, but a breadth failure can produce sell signals, so we will be watching this position closely. Overbought can be a good thing when the SPX is breaking out on a new bullish leg for the first time. As a result, both breadth oscillators are on buy signals and both are in overbought territory. Market breadth has been extremely strong over the past two weeks. If they should move to new highs, it would negate existing buy signals and require new ones to be established. Rather, they are moving more or less diagonally, which is not a great confirmation of a buy signal. However, as can be seen from the accompanying chart, they are not exactly trending down. The equity-only put-call ratio is still below its peak of about a week ago and thus still on buy signals. We are waiting for the SPX to cross either of the +/-4σ bands to set a new signal. There is no McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) signal at this moment.
#The profit any way you slice it full#
If that level is breached to the downside, the next phase of the bear market will be in full force. There is support at 3900, and then there is a strong support in the 3760-3800 area. A breakout above 4100 would be a bullish game-changer, but it is looking less likely now.
Above this there is further resistance at 4100. It is now setting up a resistance zone at the recent high of 4015. But on Jan 18 it closed below 3940 and went further down. The S&P 500 had moved into a bullish mode when it crossed above 3940, with positive signals from several internal indicators. As a result, it is still a good idea to maintain a “core” bearish position. This is the fourth time since the market peak in January 2022 that the SPX has failed to break the grip of the bears. The US stock market once again tried to break through both the downtrend line that defines this bear market and the S&P 500’s falling 200-day moving average, as measured by the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.76%.
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